Snow Journal - Serious About Snowsports!

Home

Forums : NELSAP Discussion : NELSAP Discussion
Moderated by: Chris, nelsap, Betsy, the_hop

Anonymous posts are not allowed in this forum

My Hope is Accu Weather is Wrong

Page: 1

Author

Post

skipatrol40s
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Apr 29, 2002
Posts: 1480

Location:

Posted: Aug 18, 2012 - 1:28 AM GMT

Found on Epic Ski. New England and upper NY state need a good snow year. On the plus side they are not calling for below normal snowfall or temps.

abubob
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Oct 27, 2008
Posts: 760

Location:Bristol, NH

Posted: Aug 18, 2012 - 1:42 AM GMT

They also posted this so

joshua segal
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Jul 12, 2004
Posts: 5964

Location:NH

Posted: Aug 18, 2012 - 1:43 AM GMT

After last year, average looks pretty good. Funny how in a world of superlatives, average has taken on a certain negativity.

If you succeed in business, you make your "bogeys". But golf has turned bogey into a dirty word.

Shortly after I moved to this town, a local newspaper tried for an expose when they printed the following headline, "Local people expressed shock to learn that half their children are Below Average".

__________
Joshua Segal

MissDaEast
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Dec 17, 2002
Posts: 2323

Location:So. Cal / Exit 1-I89,VT

Posted: Aug 18, 2012 - 10:27 PM GMT

Your title caught my attention. This is what I saw on Accuweather:

NYC, Philly, DC: Winter 2012-2013 will be "Snow" Joke

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Aug 18, 2012; 3:38 PM ET

Following a snow drought during winter 2011-2012, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England will get a snow dump this winter.

Above-normal snowfall is forecast for the major I-95 cities, including New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., during winter 2012-2013.

"The I-95 cities could get hit pretty good. It's a matter of getting the cold to phase in with the huge systems that we are going to see coming out of the southern branch of the jet stream this year," AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

The cold is expected to phase with the big storms during January and February with the potential for large snowstorms to make headlines and create travel headaches in the major cities.

A pedestrian makes his way through Times Square, Friday, Jan. 21, 2011, in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

On the other hand, the ski industry, which despite an early start for some resorts suffered a slow season overall last winter, will benefit from the above-normal snowfall.

Factors Behind the Above-Normal Snow Forecast
The presence of El Niño or La Niña - and their strength - is used to project how active the winter season is going to be. AccuWeather.com Long-Range meteorologists are projecting a weak to moderate El Niño by the fall.

An El Niño pattern is classified by above-normal water temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Warming the ocean water in turn warms the air above the Pacific, causing weather patterns to change globally.

El Niño winters feature a strong southern branch of the jet stream across the U.S. When the strong southern jet stream phases with the northern branch of the jet stream (see graphic below), big storms can impact the East.

It should be noted that no two El Niños are the same. The strength of this phenomenon can mean a great deal for winter weather.

Furthermore, there are other factors that influence snowfall amounts for the winter. Enough cold air must meet with big East Coast storms for snow to fall in the I-95 corridor.

Blocking is a term that meteorologists in the Northeast use to describe areas of high pressure that dominate eastern Canada or Greenland at times during the winter, forcing cold air to reach to U.S.

"When blocking occurs, storms tend to slow their eastward progression off the East coast. You also get moist flow off the Atlantic to help enhance snowfall rates," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards explained.

ski63
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Oct 19, 2006
Posts: 115

Location:

Posted: Aug 18, 2012 - 10:28 PM GMT

The higher temps across the northern US seems a bit strange. Anymore I'm happy with cold. Time will tell what the new "average" is. Looking forward to real winter.

Kurt

abubob
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Oct 27, 2008
Posts: 760

Location:Bristol, NH

Posted: Aug 19, 2012 - 2:14 AM GMT

Quote:

Shortly after I moved to this town, a local newspaper tried for an expose when they printed the following headline, "Local people expressed shock to learn that half their children are Below Average".

What are you saying? Half our winters are below average?

photogf128
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Apr 10, 2004
Posts: 2612

Location:MRV Vermont

Posted: Aug 19, 2012 - 11:37 PM GMT

Edited: Aug 19, 2012 - 11:42 PM GMT

How did Accuweather do last year? I can't believe people take any stock in this. They can't even forecast 5 days in advance much of the time. There is a 50% chance they will be right. I hope there is big snow this winter but not because these fools predicted it.

__________
facebook.com/profile.php?id=1454198707#!/pages/American-Photoart-Gallery/90884206988

skipro77
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Nov 17, 2010
Posts: 54

Location:Great Smoky Mountains

Posted: Aug 20, 2012 - 1:18 PM GMT

El Nino usually brings a good season for Southeastern resorts. After last year, I sure hope so.

70s gore kid
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Mar 09, 2010
Posts: 314

Location:Top of Cheat Mountain, WV

Posted: Aug 20, 2012 - 1:58 PM GMT

So far, I have been very disappointed with what Accuweather is giving us, because it really says NOTHING.

Look at the first two maps: they contract each other, give no definite forecast, and leave everyone in the East saying "so will be it be warm like last year or cold?"

The last map (just above) posted by Photog128 is a classic: it shows all the heavy snow forecast for the East last winter. Last year. Huh?

The bottom line is you are not hearing any of this gibberish from the National Weather Service because they have not yet released a winter forecast. Too many variables right now. Accuweather wants headlines.

4aprice
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Jan 16, 2006
Posts: 999

Location:Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Posted: Aug 20, 2012 - 1:58 PM GMT

Quote:

How did Accuweather do last year? I can't believe people take any stock in this. They can't even forecast 5 days in advance much of the time. There is a 50% chance they will be right. I hope there is big snow this winter but not because these fools predicted it.

I put a lot more stock into Accuweather's forecast when Joe Bastardi was there. He nailed it 2 and 3 years ago but was gone from Accuweather before last year. FIW Joe is calling for a cold winter with a weak to mod El Nino which will make the storm track up the Atlantic coast active. (read NawEasters) Last season was La Nina conditions so it should be a much different. I think we do ok this year.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Jimme
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Jan 25, 2002
Posts: 1208

Location:6 miles West of Jiminy Peak, MA

Posted: Jun 19, 1972 - 1:45 PM GMT

This is totally unscientific, but I got this Top Ten Snowfalls chart several years ago, and have noticed what might be considered a slight 'pattern' to snowfall in the Albany, NY area.

http://www.cbs6albany.com/weather/features/historical-data/snowfall.shtml

Using December as an example, 4 of the top 10 snowfall's occur on the 25th. Skew that a couple of days to include the 23rd, and half of the top storms occur around those dates. Each month has a similar 'pattern' where 3 of the top storms are about the same date.

Hey, this is weather, it changes, but from my observations, using the December example, if it's going to snow, there's a good chance it will happen the third week of the month if it does not happen mid-month. This pertains to the Albany, NY area and the Western Berkshires in my observations.

Does anyone know of any other sources for historical snowfall data? I'd like to see Top Ten charts for any area where there is a mountain to ski nearby.

__________
The Artful Dodger

obienick
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Oct 21, 2005
Posts: 1197

Location:

Posted: Aug 20, 2012 - 5:58 PM GMT

I'm confused with what you're trying to say. Are you trying to say that big storms tend to always fall on the same date? If so, I don't think that is any relevant trend.

If you think of a December, it is much warmer at the start than at the end. Bigger snow storms will of course fall near the end of the month as with falling temperatures there is a greater probability that that storm will produce snow vs. rain. Likewise even to a more extent for November. And, the same in the opposite sense for March and April. If you look at January/February, where the slope of average temperature vs time is much lower, you can see the 10 biggest snowfalls are more spread out throughout the month.

abubob
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Oct 27, 2008
Posts: 760

Location:Bristol, NH

Posted: Jun 19, 1941 - 1:45 PM GMT

This should add to everyone's confusion. What I've done here is to overlay two NOAA climate at a glance graphs for December 1980 through 2011. The Green bar indicates above average precipitation, brown bar - below average precipitation. The Red bar indicates above average temperatures, Blue - below average. The green line indicates a temperature trend while the red line a precipitation trend.

Below are the graphs separately. Make your own graphs to confuse yourself at: Climate at a Glance
__________
Attachments:

Jimme
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Jan 25, 2002
Posts: 1208

Location:6 miles West of Jiminy Peak, MA

Posted: Aug 22, 2012 - 6:15 PM GMT

Edited: Aug 22, 2012 - 6:23 PM GMT

Quote:

I'm confused with what you're trying to say. Are you trying to say that big storms tend to always fall on the same date? If so, I don't think that is any relevant trend.

If you think of a December, it is much warmer at the start than at the end. Bigger snow storms will of course fall near the end of the month as with falling temperatures there is a greater probability that that storm will produce snow vs. rain. Likewise even to a more extent for November. And, the same in the opposite sense for March and April. If you look at January/February, where the slope of average temperature vs time is much lower, you can see the 10 biggest snowfalls are more spread out throughout the month.

You're understanding it. It is not scientific at all. Yes, I'm saying I think that storms fall on or within 2 days of a calendar date. I found it interesting that out of over 100 years of historical data, that 4 of the top 10 storms fell on the 25th of December. I was wondering if this was a trend. It may just be probability. I agree that we can expect the snow to fall as temps get cooler in December. (Winter itself is a larger weather pattern? We can expect colder temps and snow during the Winter season.) Although, during the past 12 Winters I've paid attention to snowstorms, the third week in March seems to have had some good storms too. So if I had to plan a ski vacation in the Norhteast, I'd pick the 3rd week in Dec or 3rd week in March.

However, I've read that humans find patterns were none exist, and that may be what I'm doing. I have that Albany Top 10 chart at home, and I've highlighted one date three times in each month that a Top Ten storm has fallen. I need to update it, and will post the dates.

I'm going to take a look at the snowfalls for December in Albany as far back as possible to see how many fell on the 25th. I'm curious that I might find that it is more like to get a good snowfall on say 12/25, than a good snowfall on 2/1.

__________
The Artful Dodger

70s gore kid
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Mar 09, 2010
Posts: 314

Location:Top of Cheat Mountain, WV

Posted: Aug 22, 2012 - 7:09 PM GMT

Edited: Aug 22, 2012 - 7:11 PM GMT

Jimme:

Being an avid weather geek, I have to disagree with your thesis. Feel free to research and double check what I am about to say:

3rd week in March 2012: 75 degrees in VT and NH, most areas except Killington and Jay close down by March 25. West Virginia gives up a week earlier.

3rd week in March 2011: Unusually cold and windy weather in the Northeast and MidAtlantic, but no snowfall. Storm is predicted and does not happen. Trails icy, though coverage is good.

3rd week in March 2010: On and off rain (and fog) in the Northeast, temps around 45. Balmy in the MidAtlantic, temps in the 50s. No new snow, plenty of bare spots, as temps had hit 70 in the northeast the second week of March.

3rd week of March USED TO be a great time to ski, not in the past 4 years.

photogf128
Profile | Galleries

Rank:

Member Since:
Apr 10, 2004
Posts: 2612

Location:MRV Vermont

Posted: Aug 22, 2012 - 10:55 PM GMT

Methinks having the ability and budget to make snow after these late/mid season warm-ups has gone from a luxury to neccessity in order to make it into April.

__________
facebook.com/profile.php?id=1454198707#!/pages/American-Photoart-Gallery/90884206988

Page: 1