The Cold War is Over..... The Victor??? Communism.....
Allow me to elaborate. Soviet Russia did not win the Cold War. But their associates China won without even throwing a punch...
China won, by sitting in the shadows and not doing much of anything, other than becoming a part of the global economy.
Most of the world is dependent on Chinese produced goods. Most of the world, due to not looking at labels. Have no idea that goods once produced in their home market. Are now produced in China.
China sets their own rules regarding employment standards, hazardous material use, and quality standards. Companies would like you to think they set the standards. Some companies even think they do. They do not..
The kicker is this.... A large, legit, Non Chinese company. Contracts a company, in China to produce their goods, what happens?
The contracted company in China, is more than happy to take their money for production. And, take the plans for the goods to be produced.
Subsidiary (Chinese) company's then produce knock off/counterfeit versions.
In most cases these counterfeit versions cost a fraction of the cost of the real version. Why? Because, they didn't have to pay for the research and development...
Not only do the Chinese have access to everyone else's R/N'D But, they also can reverse engineer it and make improvements. +2 China why Plus 2? Don't have to invent it, and can reverse engineer it and improve it. Also, why wouldn't they build into the stolen technology the ability to monitor us.
To sum it up, Communism has won the war. Why? We are giving away our secrets, and our money to them. Just to save a few bucks at Wal-Mart, or insert "name here" store.
I don't think China has won at all. They have a far lower standard of living per capita. Their citizens have none of the freedoms that we take for granted. They are destroying their environment which will come back to haunt them. And it the not too far out future, they will have far fewer workers to support an aging population due to their one child policy.
The attitude of workers also changes with time. Japan was a producer of cheap goods in the 1950's and 1960"s as was Taiwan in the 1970's and 1980's. Both countries now have a higher standard of living with fewer workers willing to work long hours to produce goods sold at bare bottom prices. The same will happen with China in time.
Besides-- as big as the PRC is, they are new to the concept of "power projection" one deck does not make a credible force to influence events. Besides, they need us for the hard currency to support their expansion. We really don't have to fear anything directly from the PRC. However, if I was, say, Viet-Nam, Singapore, the Philippines, etc, etc, then I'd take some notice. The South China Sea is at the end of a long logistical tail for the USN.
Posted: Nov 20, 2011 - 9:05 PM GMT Edited: Nov 20, 2011 - 9:07 PM GMT
drsmooth... read Thomas Friedman's the World is Flat. Give it a read with an open mind. I don't agree with Friedman on a LOT of things. But he does a good job at showing how the USA has benefited from cheap labor overseas.
Don't believe me? Go back in time prior to cheap Chinese produced goods (and Taiwan and Korea for that matter). When I was in high school (circa Win3.1) most people didn't have personal computers and PCs cost $2000 for cutting edge machine that could run 3.1. No cell phones and clothing costed about the same as it does now even counting for inflation (clothing prices have typically stayed the same in the past dozen years despite inflation, though cotton prices are on the way up and changing that). Now almost every house hold has the basics... PC, high speed internet, all the appliances, TV, DVD, cell phones for the entire fam, etc. Most families couldn't get that sorta outfit twenty years ago. Cars have come a loooong way and domestics had to react and improve because of foreign makes... not the "foreign" has anything to do with it as domestics are built overseas and vice versa. All the while, Americans have been doing less physical labor and more white collar work.
Don't get me wrong, our system has been built on the backs people that can't get up to the basic standard of living... but by and large, we are able to do things and buy things that we wouldn't have been able to twenty years ago because cheap foreign products keep costs down allowing consumers to buy more. Part of that was going into debt beyond our means but China never put a gun to our collective heads...
If Communism ever won, it wasn't because China is exporting lots of stuff to the USA but rather because Capitalism still displays its characteristic shortfalls when allowed to run 100% amok without constraint. And if Communism won, why is China going more and more towards a mixed economic system and leaning more and more towards capitalism and democracy... okay little steps, but its not like it is still holding firm... baby steps.
drsmooth... read Thomas Friedman's the World is Flat. Give it a read with an open mind. I don't agree with Friedman on a LOT of things. But he does a good job at showing how the USA has benefited from cheap labor overseas.
Will give it a read and see what I think.
My main problem with legit company's out sourcing to China. Is this, we are essentially handing over technology to China. That we would never dream of handing over to the Soviets.
Counterfeiting and reverse engineering is a common practice in China and very difficult for a legit company to defend against. http://www.economist.com/node/8961838
Also Counterfeit parts have found their way into the military.
In the early 19th century, Francis Lowell went to England and essentially pirated the mill designs and technology that later resulted in New England's textile industry. As a developing country, the USA seems to have done then what China is doing today.
It turned out pretty well for the USA and Europe seems to have survived.
Well, there's a difference between reverse engineering something and innovating something yourself. Lookit the B-29-- the Russkies reverse engineered it when several crew naively believed that they'd be returned to the US if they did an emergency landing in Siberia. Next thing we know versions of the B-29 called the TU-4 "Bull" were flying over Moscow.
But, it wasn't the same aircraft-- less payload and range due to problems. Other countries try to copy us because there is a lead in innovation and look at our standard of living comparable to the PRC. Would we be willing to sacrifice what we have for what they have? How hard of a life does the typical Chinese person have compared to ours?
Posted: Nov 21, 2011 - 5:49 PM GMT Edited: Nov 21, 2011 - 7:19 PM GMT
Quote:
Other countries try to copy us because there is a lead in innovation and look at our standard of living comparable to the PRC. Would we be willing to sacrifice what we have for what they have?
What we might want to be concerned about is upward trends vs. downward trends.
Quote: "In the early 19th century, Francis Lowell went to England and essentially pirated the mill designs and technology that later resulted in New England's textile industry."
It started at the end of the 18th Century when Samuel Slater illegally brought mill technology (fairly primitive but better than that which was here) built a mill in Pautucket, R.I., built mills along the Blackstone River and tributaries up into Massachusetts and started the Industrial Revolution in the U.S.
Lowell improved upon Slater's beginnings with mills in Lowell which did both spinning and weaving, I believe. Slater's mill depended on the cottage industry to provide the yarn, I believe. (Some historian, or maybe a lot of historians out there, should check my facts because I'm doing this from memory and I was just a kid when this stuff was happening).So Lowell claims to be the place where the Industrial Revolution began.
Samuel Slater is buried in Webster, Mass., a town he founded out of sections of Dudley, Oxford and a surveyor's gore, which is a surveying error. The town is named for Daniel Webster, who Slater admired and who may have been his lawyer. (Historians?)
(Some historian, or maybe a lot of historians out there, should check my facts because I'm doing this from memory and I was just a kid when this stuff was happening)
In the early 19th century, Francis Lowell went to England and essentially pirated the mill designs and technology that later resulted in New England's textile industry. As a developing country, the USA seems to have done then what China is doing today.
It turned out pretty well for the USA and Europe seems to have survived.
I couldn't have stated the problem better myself.
The situation in the 19th century compared to today is similar. However the world, now operates under a much different set of rules.
Like it or not, China is the enemy. No different than the USA being the enemy of the U.K. in the 19th century. Main difference is this...
We are handing China technology. China isn't coming over here and stealing it. We are handing it to them to produce, and likely pirate.
Technology, we would never let the Soviets get their hands on.
Because of a highly educated middle class in China. They are easily able to reverse engineer products. Not just reverse engineer, but improve the final product.
Most in the Chinese middle class can speak several languages, and are extremely computer literate.
By comparison in the 19th century the literacy rate was low. Few could even read or write in their own language. Never mind speak another language.
An article in "Popular Science Magazine Sept 2007" outlined how, not only were the Chinese "Borrowing" technology, reverse engineering it then improving it.
In the article they mentioned that defective, knock off, I Pods. Were actually returned for warranty service to Apple, repaired. Then returned to the consumer (who probably had no idea they purchased a knock off). Apparently neither did Apple.
Quote:
"A spokesman for the Chinese firm said he had been surprised by the way his car resembled the original, explaining that the company had simply copied a toy car."
We are funding the Chinese Government's war machine. The money they aren't paying their citizens, and made by producing knock off goods, is going into the coffers of the Chinese government.
The knowledge they get by reverse engineering legit technology (that we are giving to China) is going to their engineers, government, or "Private Sector". (I put private sector in quotes because, there is no real private sector in China).
China is a propaganda machine. The Chinese government can convince (a huge majority) of their captive audience whatever they want.
The fact that China is polluting their own environment, and has a lower class of living, works to the Chinese government's advantage.
Hypothetical statement from the Chinese Government...........
"Our environment is polluted, most of you are poor and have nothing to eat, and no assets." "Why? because Europe and North America." "They wouldn't pay you the worker a good wage to produce products for them."
"it's their fault you are in the position you are in".
China, has almost 1.5billion people. That is with their 1 child per couple policy.
If they convince 10% of 1.5billion to rise up against the rest of the world.....
The whole world should be worried..
For the record 10% of 1.5 billion is this
10% of 1.5 billion = 150 000 000
One Hundred Fifty Million potential military personnel...........
Wrap your head around that...
How? They're not threatening of bombing us or anything like that.
In fact ... the funny thing ... in some regards, China is more laissez-faire than we are. They have no consumer and worker protection, which is how the lead paint wound up on kids' toys.
I'm not worried about the commies crossing the big blue lake, but there is some concern over what they intend to do locally. While a carrier to us as a threat isn't a big deal (there are about 30 attack subs in the Pacific fleet and every skipper goes to bed dreaming of putting a torpedo or several into it's hull...) to a country like the Philippines or Viet-Nam it is a big deal.
The Spratley's and surrounding ocean in the South China Sea are filled with oil. China's a net importer of oil so they need the black stuff. They've "claimed" the South China Sea as their own in defiance of several international treaties. Would we be willing to defend Viet-Nam's claim against this? Probably not. How about Philippines? Good question.
Remember a few years ago when the PRC harassed that ship in international waters and then before that forced down the EP-3 plane? They're also shipping weapons and "advisors" into the Horn of Africa as well. PLAN ships are also on pirate patrol in the Indian Ocean, giving officers and men experience in long term, deep water cruises.
If this is all taken and looked through a long term lens then the options are not so peaceful. We are a nation that focuses on the next set of downs, but in our game the QB only gets two sets of downs. The PRC is playing a different game and thinking about 30 years ahead. When in our foreign policy has that happened?
8" on the ground this morning! Nice when Messner (the local weatherman) is wrong on the good side of things.
Posted: Nov 25, 2011 - 6:44 PM GMT Edited: Nov 25, 2011 - 6:45 PM GMT
IMHO: It's becoming more and more symbiotic everyday.... what we have currently is almost like the conept of "mutually assured destruction"... during the Cold War we lived under politics of fear. In reality the threat was minimal because neither side wanted the potential end result... complete destruction of mankind. The leadership on both sides liked it that way because it kept people from questioning the authority. For the time being (the next 15 to 20 years)we need them to satisfy our addiction to consuming cheap goods, and they need us to fuel their growth. The danger lies in the leadership. A power monger on either side could upset the balance, and change life as we know it forever .
Live life... enjoy the snow... The only thing we have to fear... is a warm dry winter.