Sunday is the day, folks. This was sent to VT road crews, I understand, from Roger Hill:
Major Nor'easter to dump big snows across the state.
Arriving Saturday night and lasting into Sunday night before exiting...as snow showers and flurries. Wind drifting and snow loading could be problematical with such a big amount of snow fall, though it will be cold aloft and at the surface making it a drier snowfall with less stick about 20:1 ratio or better, some areas traditionally start out that way but work back toward 10 to 15:1 ratios making for wetter combinations.
System will be loaded up with moisture for the Gulf of Mexico and import from remnants of ex tropical storm Olga.
It will track from Texas to southern New England and off the coast into the Gulf of Maine while interior New England temperatures will be cold enough for all snow...dividing line with any further track inland may shift north to affect southern Vermont with chance for risked sleet and wetter snow ratio's for snow loading.
Please see track of this important storm via the graphics especially numbered 4,5,6
Needless to say we'll have to watch the winds from the north at 20 to 35 mph with possible gusts to 40 mph in the higher terrain with blowing and drifting and blizzard white-out conditions developing Saturday night into the all of Sunday.
Meso-scale banding will be an important feature during the early Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon with potential 2 to 3 inch snowfall rates per hour, possibly even thunder as the storm will have higher than usual upward vertical motion.
I'm recommending a conference call at 2 or 3 PM tomorrow to brief for latest information about this upcoming storm event.
With the colder temperatures in place I'm anticipating a dry snow, but with lots of it possible 2 to extreme cases 4 feet and 1 to 2 feet in many valleys. The storms has similarity to the Valentines Day storm with more wind and and slightly less precip amounts but still very healthy possibly in the top 15 or 20 winter storms based on current trajectory and forecast models.
Get out your shovels and fat skis, and get ready to call in sick Monday.
They are saying a short changover to rain on Sunday for Central MA but at the same time are saying a high of 28....I hate to tell them but it can't rain at 28 degrees.
Warm air riding over the cold layer of air at ground level melts the precipitation. The thickness of the layer of cold air on the bottom determines whether the precipitation falls as rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow.
December has really shaped up nicely. Looks like we are going to get a double barrel full and some more on Sat!. Look for the powderbank.com van up at Bolton Valley on Sunday 12/16...Looks like we should get some great Vermont powder skiing video. Check out our latest stops and videos from our November and December tour, and support our resort communities. Think Snow !
Reports from around Mount Snow say 7-10" has already fallen.
The Sat/Sun storm is starting to look icky for everyone except Northern NH and VT, forceast has moved closer to a changover to freezing rain or rain for most of MA and Southern NH on top of 4-8 inches of snow for Central MA. Yuck! I'd rather it be all snow, rain with all of the snow plus a couple more inches is going to bring some massive flooding.
Just in case it's not dead yet, keep hitting it with a stick, maybe throw a few rocks at it, urinate on it... You know, the whole ball of wax...
I've already decided to call Monday a Powder Day. Probably Cannon. Last year I had a total of 27" at my house until the Valentine Day's storm. After last night's snow, I'm just 6" away from tying that - and that's just this month. It sure is shaping up to be a great winter!
Looks like the snow amounts are going to depend on how far north the warm air aloft creeps up. Right now it looks like the snow and snow/sleet line will sit just south of the NY/PA border. A lot of the NWS guys are saying a 50 mile shift in the system or warm air either north or south will greatly affect the snowfall amounts, so they've held off giving full numbers right now. However, Binghamton's NWS issued Winter Storm Warning is stating that the entire forecast area is likely to see over a foot of snow with the current storm track.
Boy am I excited for this storm!
Chris Shumeyko- Lafayette College Ski Team Coach