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Forums : NELSAP Discussion : NELSAP Discussion
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Deja fr#&^ing vu...

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jb66
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Posted: Jan 01, 2007 - 8:20 PM GMT

As the second major storm in a row heads off north via the Great Lakes (again), spreading rain and melting snow about the NE, and what looks like another whopper heading ashore in the PNW, forecast to do EXACTLY the same thing on Friday and Saturday, I ask the weather-inclined folks on the board to give a little insight: Do you see a break in this lovely pattern? Do the long-term forecast models show a shift in the jet, or is this what El Nino has in store for us the rest of the way? Thanks.

Good day to watch football..Go Michigan! But I'd rather be skiing...
bobbutts
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 12:17 AM GMT

I lifted one line to sum it up:
"GFS is showing the same weather pattern through mid-month, so no major change in the weather pattern coming."

Accuweather Blog
rstuthill
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 12:39 AM GMT

Quote:
4. I noticed that the sea surface temperatures are warming toward South America, which may mean the El Nino is expanding eastward. It does not mean the El Nino is getting stronger, just that warm water is expanding for now. The implications of such warming may not be seen until late January or February.

First, why not just tell us the implications???? Why leave it hanging like that?

Second, Jeremy, can you explain what this might mean? No snow at all this year or a change for the better?
WoodCore
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 12:43 AM GMT

Quote:
Do you see a break in this lovely pattern? Do the long-term forecast models show a shift in the jet, or is this what El Nino has in store for us the rest of the way? Thanks.



As far as I can tell, no foreseeable change in the weather pattern.

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tommyadrian5
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 1:24 AM GMT

The solution to the problem is 'go west'.


crystalmountainskier
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 2:16 AM GMT

Funny thing that the same storms that hit you give us in the PNW snow, not rain. It has been a little warm though.
flbski
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 9:12 AM GMT

While the base is great up on the local hill (Mt Spokane), 72".........the news reports say we're headed towards a record 3rd year in a row with less that 30" in downtown Spokane (current season total, 11", avg 75"...........can you say global warming?...............I hope that the occasional mixed precip at the base doesn't become rain the next few years............

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NewYorkSkier17
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 12:54 PM GMT

Well as you can see this will go down as one of the worst, there is a time for recovery, but folks were heading towards mid season. With temps predicted to be in the low 40's for the next several days things are again looking rough, i hate to be so negative. Just two days ago, the temps looked to be in the low to mid 30's for highs during the same time frame. This is one of those years, i would not trust any weatherman right now. Its just one of those seasons, where the weather is very unstable, and very hard to predict; just ask jeremy. I wish you guys could be enjoying your season right now, you still can. Best bets through february.

Stowe- Location, and good altitude create good conditions at elevations of 2500 and up. Temp range for next seven days during the day.
1280Base- 37-44
3650Summit-32-36
Jay- Prime location to stay a little cooler than everyone else.
1800 Base-36-42
4000 Summit-31-35
Whiteface-Altitude, look for anything above the midstation to be best. Especially the summit area, should be good skiing up top, nice and soft, temps should stay below freezing here during the day.
1200 Base-38-44
4600 Summit-28-35


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rocket21
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 1:23 PM GMT

If Martin Luther King day is lost, this season is toast unless the March demographic expands big time.

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Live2Ski
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 3:03 PM GMT

Go west young man or woman as the saying goes.

The northeast weather pattern will not change this year. It will remain 4-6 days cold followed by 5-7 days warm with the dreaded "r" word.

With rumors flying around about areas thinking of closing and not yhaving enough snow to hold scheduled events; the real question is who will survive the entire season this year?
tommyadrian5
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 4:24 PM GMT

this year could produce the long overdue shakeout in the northeast ski industry. I would say roughly 1/4 of the smaller areas will not survive.

This has been expected for some time given the continuing decline of the us ski industry and skier numbers as a whole.
joshua segal
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 4:43 PM GMT

tommyadrian5 said:
Quote:
this year could produce the long overdue shakeout in the northeast ski industry. I would say roughly 1/4 of the smaller areas will not survive.

This has been expected for some time given the continuing decline of the us ski industry and skier numbers as a whole.


A very perceptive posting: It will be interesting to see where or when this decline will stop (if ever.) It also leads to another question: In the next generation, without feeder hills to provide the people to ski at the "big boy" areas, what shape will skiing take or will it become an "off the beaten path activity" such as cliff diving in Acapulco.

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Joshua Segal
smelick
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 4:57 PM GMT

Quote:
A very perceptive posting: It will be interesting to see where or when this decline will stop (if ever.) It also leads to another question: In the next generation, without feeder hills to provide the people to ski at the "big boy" areas, what shape will skiing take or will it become an "off the beaten path activity" such as cliff diving in Acapulco.



Why such doom and gloom? Cliff diving is thriving in Acapulco, it's all relative. Since it's the new year, here's my prediction:

Ski area's will have to provide additional year round activities to survive. More emphasis placed on Summer activities. Hell, I am still baffled why area's haven't planted some nice greens and concentrated on sports like this: http://grass-ski.alpesprovence.net/

-Scott
joshua segal
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 6:09 PM GMT

Quote:

Ski area's will have to provide additional year round activities to survive. More emphasis placed on Summer activities. ..

-Scott

True.

And towards that, many areas have put in -
Golf courses: Ragged, Killington, Stratton, etc.

Alpine Slides and water parks: Bromley, Stowe, etc.

Mountain Biking: Killington, Mt. Snow, etc.

Tennis Courts: Waterville, Stratton, etc.

Can any of the ski area managers who read this list comment on why we don't see more of this? Is the issue capitalization, available acreage or just lack of demand?

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Joshua Segal
rothski
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 7:01 PM GMT

I think ski areas with high altitude trail pods and a viable means of uploading and downloading skiers to/ from them will have the best shot at success if global warming is a reality. Both moutains at Sugarbush's & Killington are well positioned based on their current infrastruture.

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mapnut
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 8:01 PM GMT

[And towards that, many areas have put in -
Golf courses: Ragged, Killington, Stratton, etc.

Alpine Slides and water parks: Bromley, Stowe, etc.

Mountain Biking: Killington, Mt. Snow, etc.

Tennis Courts: Waterville, Stratton, etc.

Can any of the ski area managers who read this list comment on why we don't see more of this? Is the issue capitalization, available acreage or just lack of demand?[/quote]

Probably lack of demand. All of these things except mountain biking can be done in lots of places besides ski areas. Putting in such attractions is no guarantee of getting people to come to the mountains to do things they can do closer to home. It only works for people who love the mountains in the first place, in fact most likely those who buy a summer home there. I love the mountains but when I go there in the off-season it's just to hike or camp or fish, which I wouldn't do at a ski area. The only time I've ever spent money at a ski area in the off-season is when I rode the Cannon tram.

I would say the market is limited to the vacation home owners.
smelick
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 8:20 PM GMT
Edited: Jan 02, 2007 - 8:41 PM GMT

Quote:
Putting in such attractions is no guarantee of getting people to come to the mountains to do things they can do closer to home. ....
I would say the market is limited to the vacation home owners.


This is crazy. Mountainous areas ARE vacation destinations well beyond the people who own vacation homes. Take NH vs. Vermont in the summer as a clear example. NH is a thriving summer destination because it has lots to offer; Hiking round Lincoln, Storyland, shopping in Conway etc.. A variety of mixed activities that Ski areas could capitalize on. Once again, just think if you could ski in August (no, not water ski), are you are telling me you wouldn't? Are you suggesting that Mountain biking has been on these hills as long as these areas have been around? There are uses for these hills that have yet to be discovered. Mountain biking down the slopes is a great example, just a few years ago it was unheard of. I was at Cranmore last year and they were coming down the hill on bikes with skis!! Who knows what's next. I'm all for grooming the green slopes and skiing in my shorts, the investment is there, just mow the grass!!

-Scott

arik
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Posted: Jan 02, 2007 - 11:40 PM GMT

This whole threat is sad. That said, a market shakeup is a time of arbitrage and opportunity financially. So I am curious to see how it plays out.

TimberLeaf
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Posted: Jan 03, 2007 - 2:30 AM GMT

It's looking like a Market Shakeup of Biblical proportions.

Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria.
- Dr. Peter Venkman

Anyway, I'm going out west.

Question: where can I get discount tickets for Tahoe resorts? I'm using my 3dom pass at NorthStar, and I'd like to get cheaper tickets for Heavenly and Squaw. Someone mentioned grocery stores.

Anybody know?
johnskiismore
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Posted: Jan 03, 2007 - 2:35 AM GMT

For ski areas in the summertime.......... zipline courses!

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Screw My Car, My Body Climbed Mount Washington!

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